Don’t jinx it.
Whatever you do, DO NOT jinx it. Because for large parts of Florida, it’s going pretty well. In a record hurricane season like no other, so far we are doing pretty … NO! Don’t think it. Don’t say it. Don’t write it.
It’s not going pretty well. It’s going terrible. We’re literally running out of storm names. The say we start using the Greek alphabet if we run through all the names. Which is crazy because who even knew the Greeks had their own alphabet? And when was the last time Greece was even threatened by a tropical cyclone? So, where do they get off getting to name our storms with their letters? That’s crazy!
Personally, I think the areas most-at-risk should be allowed to do a write-in campaign to name them. Then we can get some really good names like: Little Swirly, ‘Ole Crooked Tail or The One That Licked Us. How about “Tiger Chomp?” Man, that would be good, wouldn’t it? I would take a Tiger Chomp over a Vicky or a Zeta. Besides, Greek alphabet-named storms are going to sound like a bad frat party in the Atlantic.
OK, back on topic: Don’t jinx it. Don’t let it creep into your mind. Don’t think we’re in the clear. Don’t you dare say, “maybe none are going to hit us this year.” Ugh! I feel sick even typing that.
We’re just past the peak of hurricane season, and while we’ve had five tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at the same time for the first time since the 1970s, it seems like Florida has had a bad case of body odor because they all seem to be politely curving away.
“Seem” to be.
You have to say things like “they seem to be,” or else you jinx us and one comes. See? Don’t do that!
We have to be careful. We have to continue to expect the worst. Because we’ve gotten storms late into the season before. We’ve taken our lumps the past couple of years, and we know the dangers of letting down our guard or thinking the worst is over.
In fact, if you want to be helpful, band with me and predict a storm WILL hit here. Nothing ruins the chances of something happening than trying to predict it. Shoots the odds all to heck. The universe has to abide by that. It won’t put up good money on a bad bet. There is proven science to back me up on this. I’m like 82 percent sure on this.
So, in order to predict all these storms hitting, and thereby ruining the odds of them actually making a Florida landfall, I religiously watch hurricane “fandom” sites and wait for new hurricane models to come out. And I don’t mean those simple “spaghetti model” tracks. No sir, I search out the raw forecast model runs as they come in, scanning through American and European models with their fancy graphics and pretty colors.
They’re filled with terminology that I know is important because I don’t have any idea what it means. Works like: anomaly, normalize, potential vorticity, marine instability, ensemble, “not to be used by amateur weather junkies with wild theories about how ‘predicting’ storms will actually ward them off. That’s just dumb.”
These things make no sense to me. But that’s OK, because I have my own ways of interpreting the mass of data splayed out before me. For instance, a little swirly moving west toward Florida I will assume will continue west toward Florida, unless it turns north. In which case I will remark, “Huh … That doesn’t make sense. Bet this thing doesn’t know what it’s talking about. I’m gonna’ go eat some of my canned chicken hurricane rations and see if it changes.”
Or if I see a forecast model show a high pressure ridge weaken over the Atlantic, allowing a storm to turn out to sea. I will think, “Huh … That doesn’t make sense. Whenever I’m faced with a hurricane, my pressure actually goes UP. SUPER pressure, in fact. So, I don’t see that weakening at all. I better go eat some canned chicken.”
And when I see five named storms all forecast to head in every direction possible EXCEPT Florida, I think, “I bet their algorithm is all screwed up and really … WE’RE IN THE BULLSEYE OF ALL FIVE!!! I better buy more chicken.”
Now, some of you more “learned” Floridians will inevitably think: “This guy’s an idiot! And his sodium levels are going to be through the roof if he eats all that chicken.”
But I’ll have you know I’m doing you a favor with all my predictions and ruining the odds of a Florida strike. You’re welcome! And you could do us all a favor by joining in and making your own predictions of imminent landfall.
By all means, though: Whatever you do, don’t jinx it. Don’t believe we’re going to be in the clear. Don’t even think we’re going to dodge the bullet this year. Because that is exactly when frat-boy Delta-Epsilon-Gamma sneaks up on us and carries away all of our canned chicken.